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“What kick-starts the end times into motion is Israel’s political boundaries being reestablished to what God promised the Israelites according to the Bible,” Nate Pyle, a pastor and author of a book about Jesus, informed Newsweek . Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in other words, is the instrument of God when he blockades Gazans, encourages illegal settlements on Palestinian land, and otherwise defeats any two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Trump is Netanyahu’s fanboy, so Trump too is God’s instrument. As I wrote back in October 216, “Much millenarian support comes from a belief that God has anointed Trump the ultimate disrupter of the status quo, the human wrecking ball that will smite all the structures standing in the way of Christ’s Second Coming. No one (other than the Donald himself) would confuse the candidate with the Messiah, but some evangelicals imagine him in the role of a John the Baptist gone slightly berserk.”

In the secular world, the Doomsday Clock has moved to within 150 seconds of midnight. Likewise, the clock of the end times has been ticking along, and many of the faithful are preparing for the Rapture.

The Trump era has kicked off a boom time for apocalyptics.

The Signs and the Portents

Don’t let the defeat of the Islamic State fool you. The Middle East remains a cauldron of conflict, and there are still plenty of Gogs to go around.

One of the best candidates for a Hal Lindsey-like showdown in the Middle East is Syria. Bashar al-Assad, the leader of Syria, has all the hallmarks of a good Gog.

Like Saddam Hussein, he’s a Baathist who represents a ruling minority (in Assad’s case it’s the Alawites in a majority Sunni country, while Saddam presided over a minority Sunni government in a majority Shia country). Also like Saddam, Assad has been ruthless in eradicating his own population, though he was considerably more selective in his killing before the Arab Spring protests broke out. The most recent attacks by Russian and Syrian planes in Eastern Ghouta, a suburb of Damascus held by opposition forces, have resulted in more than 500 dead and more than 1,500 injured (in a conflict that has already claimed hundreds of thousands of lives).

Syria is now the focal point of numerous contesting powers. Russia and Iran are backing Assad. Turkey has invaded to suppress the Syrian Kurds, which has caused the latter to team up with Damascus (on the principle that the distant enemy is better than the enemy nearby). Despite Visit FOOTWEAR Espadrilles Jimmy Choo London Cheap Sale 100% Authentic Outlet Store Clearance Popular Clearance Supply TYw1F6tBR
to stop backing the Syrian Kurds now that the Islamic State is no more, this military support is still a hefty line item in Trump budget.

Meanwhile, the United States is maintaining an unknown number of U.S. troops in Syria…for what? Answering that questions leads to Trump’s true Magog.

X-Report-Abuse: Please report abuse for this campaign here: http://www.mailchimp.com/abuse/abuse.phtml?u=9e951be049dbead482bf68d7did=849e363983e=3f8ac39b23 Don’t try to respond by phone or email, all you will do is end up with an innocent person or company who have had their details spoofed and picked at random from a long list that the bad guys have previously found

Please read our How to protect yourselves page for simple, sensible advice on how to avoid being infected by this sort of socially engineered malware.

This is another one of the files that unless you have “ show known file extensions enabled “, can easily be mistaken for a genuine DOC / PDF / JPG or other common file instead of the .EXE / .JS file it really is, so making it much more likely for you to accidentally open it and be infected.

Be very careful with email attachments. All of these emails use Social engineering tricks to persuade you to open the attachments that come with the email. Whether it is a message saying “look at this picture of me I took last night” and it appears to come from a friend or is more targeted at somebody who regularly is likely to receive PDF attachments or Word .doc attachments or any other common file that you use every day.

The basic rule is NEVER open any attachment to an email, unless you are expecting it. Now that is very easy to say but quite hard to put into practice, because we all get emails with files attached to them. Our friends and family love to send us pictures of them doing silly things, or even cute pictures of the children or pets.

Never just blindly click on the file in your email program. Always save the file to your downloads folder, so you can check it first. Many malicious files that are attached to emails will have a faked extension. That is the 3 letters at the end of the file name. Unfortunately windows by default hides the file extensions so you need to Set your folder options to “show known file types . Then when you unzip the zip file that is supposed to contain the pictures of “Sally’s dog catching a ball” or a report in word document format that work has supposedly sent you to finish working on at the weekend, or an invoice or order confirmation from some company, you can easily see if it is a picture or document not a malicious program.

Set your folder options

If you see JS or .EXE or .COM or .PIF or .SCR or .HTA .vbs, .wsf , .jse .jar at the end of the file name DO NOT click on it or try to open it, it will infect you.

.EXE or .COM or .PIF or .SCR or .HTA .vbs, .wsf , .jse .jar
"The Efficient, Egalitarian, Libertarian, Utilitarian Way to Double World GDP" — Bryan Caplan

As with all our top-level pages, please treat this page only as a starting point in exploring the ethics of the open borders question. To dig deeper, follow and read the links.

TL;DR

What is utilitarianism?

Utilitarianism is a philosophy where the basis of action is to “maximize total utility” — it is the underlying idea behind cost-benefit analysis. A more general term is “consequentialism” which says that actions and decisions must be judged by means of their consequences. For more, see the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy articles on The History of Utilitarianism and Mardee High Rise Cut Off Short in Blue GRLFRND Cheap Factory Outlet Discount Free Shipping Clearance Best 6KOXnVCY
. You might also be interested in Felicifia , a forum devoted to discussion of utilitarianism.

Image to describe cost-benefit analysis and utilitarian thinking, source Felicifia post by Gee Joe

Why should the utilitarian case matter to non-utilitarians?

Few people are willing to embrace utilitarianism wholesale. However, it’s also true that, in cases where there are multiple courses of action each of which is morally permissible, people are comfortable using utilitarian methods such as cost-benefit analysis to figure out which course of action to take. Further, interesting paradoxes aside, in many cases, the morality of an action is partly determined by its consequences. This idea is utilitarian.

In the case of open borders, the utilitarian case for it is overwhelmingly strong. Combining with the fact that there is a strong libertarian and a strong egalitarian case for open borders, the overall argument becomes quite strong.

The utilitarian case has two chief strengths:

Global economic impact: an efficiency-based case (in slogan form, “double world GDP”)

According to a literature review by Clemens, free labor mobility would lead to world GDP increasing by 50-150% relative to the counterfactual scenario. Economist Bryan Caplan condensed the finding to the slogan form “double world GDP” to describe the scope and scale of change involved in opening borders. You can read more about the economic findings, and disputes and caveats, .

The important point worth noting is that, even if these gains are significantly overstated, the gains from open borders for global production could still be huge. Even a 10% increase in global production means several trillion dollars of additional wealth creation every year.

The increase in global production is most closely tied to the -based case for open borders (in the sense of Pareto or Kaldor-Hicks efficiency). This is not quite a utilitarian case, because the utilitarian case would consider the differing levels of marginal utility that different people derive from money.

The pro-poor distributional impacts, and the end of poverty

While the increased production from open borders is likely to benefit a large share of the world population, the biggest proportional gains are likely to go to some very poor people (perhaps the world’s poorest, or those one rung above the lowest rungs of poverty). Some people have argued that open borders could accelerate the Womens 410 1822 0100 Boots Hgl Low Price Online WjWVJ
. While the pro-poor distributional impacts are of particular interest to egalitarians, they are also important to utilitarians, because money at the margin means more to poor people than to rich people. Thus, insofar as the gains from open borders are enjoyed more by poorer people, we get even more utility gain than if it were equally distributed.

Killing the goose that lays the golden eggs

The main objection to open borders within the universalist framework is that the above estimation of the effect of open borders is wrong in important ways, and that open borders could seriously endanger or harm the functioning of the global economic, social, and political order. For a detailed discussion of arguments of this sort, see our page on killing the goose that lays the golden eggs .

Universalist versus parochial utilitarianism

The utilitarianism described here is a utilitarianism: it aggregates the utility of all humans on earth (the interests of non-human animals and other creatures that display sentience properties are not included). However, for those who ascribe to more parochial philosophies, such as citizenism or Womens J94646n6 LowTop Sneakers Bugatti Best Seller Cheap Shop For Great Deals 2p088amjp
, “utilitarianism” would likely be used to refer to the utility of people within particular national groups. Utilitarian arguments of this sort are referred to on this site as citizenist or territorialist arguments respectively.

Insufficiently universalist

One niche type of objection to the universalist argument for open borders is that it is insufficiently universalist. This argument can be made from at least two angles:

Blog posts and articles

For blog posts on the estimates of impact on global production, see our double world GDP page. For blog posts on the argument that open borders would accelerate the end of global poverty, see our end of poverty page.

The blog posts here include some general discussion of the importance of open borders from the perspective of utility and consequences:

Pingback: All Ethical Roads Lead to Open Borders | Open Borders: The Case

Comments are closed.

Both of these analyses require that we know the topics and which topics each document is about. Topic modeling algorithms uncover this structure. They analyze the texts to find a set of topics — patterns of tightly co-occurring terms — and how each document combines them. Researchers have developed fast algorithms for discovering topics; the analysis of of 1.8 million articles in Figure 1 took only a few hours on a single computer.

What exactly is a topic? Formally, a topic is a probability distribution over terms. In each topic, different sets of terms have high probability, and we typically visualize the topics by listing those sets (again, see Figure 1). As I have mentioned, topic models find the sets of terms that tend to occur together in the texts. [ 2 ] They look like “topics” because terms that frequently occur together tend to be about the same subject.

But what comes after the analysis? Some of the important open questions in topic modeling have to do with how we use the output of the algorithm: How should we visualize and navigate the topical structure? What do the topics and document representations tell us about the texts? The humanities, fields where questions about texts are paramount, is an ideal testbed for topic modeling and fertile ground for interdisciplinary collaborations with computer scientists and statisticians.

Topic modeling sits in the larger field of probabilistic modeling , a field that has great potential for the humanities. Traditionally, statistics and machine learning gives a “cookbook” of methods, and users of these tools are required to match their specific problems to general solutions. In probabilistic modeling, we provide a language for expressing assumptions about data and generic methods for computing with those assumptions. As this field matures, scholars will be able to easily tailor sophisticated statistical methods to their individual expertise, assumptions, and theories. [ 3 ]

In particular, LDA is a type of probabilistic model with hidden variables. Viewed in this context, LDA specifies a generative process , an imaginary probabilistic recipe that produces both the hidden topic structure and the observed words of the texts. Topic modeling algorithms perform what is called probabilistic inference . Given a collection of texts, they reverse the imaginary generative process to answer the question “What is the likely hidden topical structure that generated my observed documents?”

The generative process for LDA is as follows. First choose the topics, each one from a distribution over distributions. Then, for each document, choose topic weights to describe which topics that document is about. Finally, for each word in each document, choose a topic assignment — a pointer to one of the topics — from those topic weights and then choose an observed word from the corresponding topic. Each time the model generates a new document it chooses new topic weights, but the topics themselves are chosen once for the whole collection. [ 4 ] I emphasize that this is a conceptual process. It defines the mathematical model where a set of topics describes the collection, and each document exhibits them to different degree. The inference algorithm (like the one that produced Figure 1) finds the topics that best describe the collection under these assumptions.

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